Midterms 2018 – Review and Analysis

With the smoke of the midterm elections drifting away, the final votes continue to be tallied across the nation. This post is not to discuss the national ramifications of the elections and what the Democrats gaining control of the House means for us, but rather our local elections (because this is a site dedicated to California politics as well).

I will say this, if you are a conservative/libertarian/moderate Democrat/independent/sane voter, you lost last night. You lost big time last night. In a midterm election that had incredible enthusiasm, California continued to do what California does best, go against common sense and lurch further towards the far left end of the political spectrum. We are in for more taxes and regulations, while still suffering the ill effects of a poorly run state government.

So on that cheery note, let’s dive into the highlights of last night’s election.

Governor’s Race

The crown prince Gavin Newsom was easily anointed our next Governor with little to no fight on his part. John Cox did his best (which in my opinion was not going to cut it) to come up with a catchy slogan and try to barnstorm the state with his #HelpIsOnTheWay message. But in today’s day and age, if you are going to disrupt politics in a state that has been long entrenched as a Democratic stronghold, you have to do things differently. Granted, Cox was not my first pick. Travis Allen would have taken the fight to Newsom a little better in my opinion. He wouldn’t have played nice and allowed Newsom to hide from debates. He would have called him out for it consistently, which Cox should have. Newsom hiding from debates just showed he either (1) had no new ideas for the state besides the ole tax and spend routine or (2) his ideas were so bad he didn’t want people to hear them.

This may be a new indicator of voter enthusiasm which should be tracked from here on out, but a Cox Instagram post would garner barely 1,000 likes. A Newsom post would garner easily over 7,000. Even Travis Allen (who wasn’t running) would get 3,000 likes. Once I saw that I knew the race was over. Maybe anecdotal at best, but it does show how many people are involved in the campaign. It worked for President Obama and President Trump, so I don’t know why local politicians think it’s not worth it.

So my prediction for Newsom is this, I would be surprised if he digs in and actually works as Governor for the state. He was notorious for spending a couple hours a week as Lt. Governor working and the rest gallivanting around the state. I would bet that by January he will be jetting off the Iowa to throw his hat in the ring for the Presidential race. This may be for a later post, but I can’t imagine a hard left Democrat from San Francisco will do well in a general election, but hey let him go try right?

My biggest worry is that Newsom will try to ram as much stuff through with the stroke of a pen. He will make single payer an issue which could scare a lot of voters. If it involves him getting down in the dirt and doing actual politicking, then I can’t see him pursuing it too hard.

My only silver lining I can foresee from a disastrous Newsom Governorship is that it will open up the possibility of a real contender rising in four years. Maybe Travis Allen gives it another go in 2022, and without Cox getting in his way, he can actually build somewhat of a coalition to beat him. Either way, we can only hope he has a disastrous four years and paves the way for someone new to come along and shake things up.

Prop 6

Jeez, only in California will people willingly vote for more taxes. Especially at the gas pump. With some of the most expensive gas prices in the country, people still voted down the Repeal of the Gas Tax in overwhelming fashion. I heard arguments that we need a gas tax because gas is already too cheap as it is. I don’t know who thinks gas prices are already too cheap as is, oh wait yes I do, limousine liberals who live in gated communities in multi million dollar homes, driving Teslas, and making the maid bring in your groceries from Whole Foods. To these people the difference between 2.99 a gallon and 3.75 a gallon is nothing, but to the middle and lower classes of California it makes all the difference.

I would love to be proven wrong and see new roads, bridges, and infrastructure in this state as a result of the gas tax, but I won’t hold my breath. Do I blame the Secretary of State for wording this Proposition wrong? Mostly, but I also blame ineffectual leaders to get this repealed.

So save your pennies, because you’ll need it to fill up your tank from here on out.

Prop 1

Someone asked me to explain this Proposition to them in basic terms;

“Will it raise taxes?”

Here’s my take, whenever the state asks voters to “authorize a bond” you should remember what it really means is “allow us to take on more debt.” How does this debt get paid off? Well the hope is the program somehow pays it back, but usually when interest payments come due, the taxpayers are left picking up the tab.

This Prop authorized the state to issue a $4 billion bond for affordable housing. The state will be responsible for paying back the bond at $174 million a year for 35 years. That’s a long time for us to pay something back and a lot of interest compounding.

But when the state gets involved in housing it’s always a good thing right? Wrong. This has money pit written all over it.

Prop 10

One of the bright spots of last night was Proposition 10 was resoundingly defeated. Prop 10 would allow the state to get involved in rent control. Because as we all know from basic economics, when the state gets involved in fixing prices things go sideways real quick.

If Prop 10 passed, you can guarantee that developers would have fled the state and declined any new projects. If there is a risk that their investment won’t see returns because of rent control, then they aren’t going to build. If developers don’t build, supply stagnates, and when supply stagnates demand and prices go up.

California needs to be more friendly to developers to allow for more housing to be built, not less.

This was one of the few bright spots.

House Races

Putting aside Fox News’ travesty of a decision to call the House for the Dems long before polls were closed in California, there were still upsets. Diane Harkey who was running in Darrell Issa’s vacated seat went down but Duncan Hunter was able to hold onto his seat despite facing an indictment.

Overall, California held some seats but lost a couple. Issa’s seat is troubling because that was a Republican seat for a long time and losing that was huge.

Prop 12

Again, another overreaching Proposition that passed. It sounds nice that all animals must be treated humanely, and that by 2022 all your eggs will be cage free, but the measure has its unintended consequences. Farmers who already face enough regulations and pressure from the state are now going to have to adapt to these new regulations or close up shop. More costly regulations on farmers will do one thing, raise prices on your food. So again, while the limousine liberals don’t really care if they pay $6 for a dozen organic cage free eggs, the lower classes will suffer when their grocery bills go up.

But hey, cage free eggs are like totally all the rage now. So who cares about whether poor people can’t put food on their tables right?

Conclusion

While most of the results were not surprising, some were confounding because of how people did not do their research and blindly voted. Prop 6 was especially confusing because for the life of me I thought, how can people actively vote for higher gas prices? But only in California can they do so and pat themselves on the back for it.

But we continue the fight, because hopefully someday the dam will break and voters will get tired of the over regulation and taxes and start to push back.